With 6-7 months still ahead before we will start to see new crop brazils arriving in any meaningful volume, the question is whether there is enough unsold stock here, or coming, to feed whatever levels of uncovered demand remains between now and then.
During the summer months, the next crop was estimated to be 12.6m barrels. This was then downgraded to 12.3m – then 12m. The latest estimates this week are now putting this figure between 11.3-11.6m barrels.
After a poor crop in USA this year and with an ever-going demand from China to top up their own domestic production, the focus is back on Bulgaria to see how much surplus they can spare for these two giant export markets.
Mark Setterfield – September 2021