Although it is still ahead of the RBA agreement on new season pricing, California has broken with recent historical tradition, and has started to offer new crop pricing at a significant discount to the levels we saw over the past year.
This is in direct response to the realisation that California has been consistently losing market share to its cheaper competitor origins, and while there may be some residual belief that Californian raisins can still demand a premium, this is more a conviction held in California than over the rest of the world raisin market.
The almond market has seen some surprising volatility over the past month, due in the main to the adjusted views on the size of the Californian new crop. As we know, the Objective estimate in July was generally thought to be too low at 2.2b lbs (last year was 2.26b lbs).
Greek currants are in short supply even on a good year, although 2019 crop at 22,000mts+, is the best crop they have enjoyed for some years.
Mark Setterfield – October 2019