lt has been a busy month on Almonds since our last report, with strong shipments reflecting some hope that demand is beginning to wake up after months of inactivity and offset against the big new crop supply, which is big enough to absorb this. The September shipments were 32% higher than last September and a record month.
The general consensus is that the Turkish new crop looks to be approximately 620-630,000mts in shell which is a 15% reduction year on year, albeit supplemented by a larger carry in (55-65,000mts) that would have been the case without Covid.
The shipment delays over the first few months created a back log of supply and has still not been relieved. Best estimates are that supply is still running l-2 months behind schedule-which is an improvement but clearly still presents a problem. Stocks in the UK and other destinations have been depleted and the replacement shipments only offer some brief respite.
Mark Setterfield – October 2020