The shipment report for April sales from California is +37.9% over last April ’20. No surprises on the year-on-year comparison, but looking at previous Aprils since 2014-15 season, the number this year is 49% higher than the average for this month over that period.
It is a massive increase in fact – and goes to reflect both the increasing demand for almonds the world over- as well as the very positive signs that the world is moving fast towards recovery (hopefully).
Poor weather conditions in all the key producing origins, have left combined world supply down by around 50%.
Growers and processors are still unclear what they will be able to bring to the market, and those origin stockholders who do have any free stock, will no doubt hoard their stocks in the certain knowledge that they will make a higher price later on.
The overall kernel size profile is unusually small this year.
This has resulted in a progressively wider price differential opening between the smaller counts and the larger sizes, which looks likely to last – if not further widen – over the remainder of 2021.
Mark Setterfield – May 2021