Less than ideal Californian bloom conditions in March, with cloud and rain affecting pollinating hours mean the new crop is likely to be less than hoped for. However, it is still expected to be significantly better than last year, when March frosts impacted on the yield.
Frosts on the 20th and 21st April affected some of the growing regions in Turkey, leading to speculation as to the effect on the quality and yield. However, the crop is still expected to be better than last year.
Prices are now trading at record highs, and with 6 months still to run before the next crop is collected, there are going to be a challenging few months ahead. The massive swing in pricing since the end of 2018 has attracted strong speculative support from within China. At some point, those traders will look to liquidate their positions and lock in their profits.
Mark Setterfield – May 2019