Turkish prices have continued to climb since our last report, and although the weaker Lira has offset this somewhat, the market is showing no signs of short term correction. A possibility of an interest rate cut on the Lira following the Turkish local elections may help correct Euro and Sterling prices.
Although poor weather still has the potential to affect the new crop, the Turkish Hazelnut Exporters’ Union are forecasting up to 877,000mts-the second largest crop on record. We will need to wait until the end of April when the chance offrosts has passed to be more secure about the forecast.
The reduced Chinese crop, and growers moving to plant soya in preference to sunflower, means that China has been buying Bulgarian stock, despite the lower quality differential. Although this has led to some shorter term firming of prices, as soon as China backs off, prices are correcting to lower levels
Mark Setterfield – March 2019