The big interest at the moment is the extent to which the drought currently hitting California (and other western States), which is the most severe drought since 2014, will impact on the developing new crop.
Day after day of mid to high 30s temperatures are seeing water reserves and reservoir levels at very low levels.
Whilst the almond orchards are resilient to hot and dry summers, this one is especially hot and dry.
The Californian crop this year was a mighty 783.754 tons – and in comparison, with the previous crop of 650,730 tons.
Expectations presently a re for a 2027 crop of 740,000 -760,000 tons- but as with Almonds (and raisins), this is also and obviously largely linked to the yet unknown impact of the drought.
With export sales this season unlikely to surpass the 20% reduction in volume below last year, this means that the carry out into the 2027 season could be in excess of 60,000mts- into a season where the next crop could be in excess of 300,000mts.
This could present the largest ever combined supply of Turkish vine fruit and without further TMO intervention, prices would easily collapse under the weight of over-supply.
Mark Setterfield – June 2021