The so-called “Objective” new crop Californian almond estimate was released on 7th July and surprised many with a repeat of the May “Subjective” estimate of 3b lbs Based on history, neither of these estimates will match the final “Actual“, but they do partly drive the sentiment.
Over the past few months, California has experienced issues at both ends of their Raisin supply chain. As we know, California is one of the U.S. states that has experienced a second wave as hard as the first (or maybe this is only another later stage of the first wave?) and their priority is to keep their factories running.
The range of estimates on the Turkish Apricot new crop now sit between 85-95,000mts, which if correct, would still be 25% +smaller than this year.
Over the past four months or so, and as China emerged from their own lock down, their domestic demand was strong and resulted in higher export prices.
Mark Setterfield – July 2020