Net shipments for the month of December were slightly lower this year versus December 2017 (199m lbs v 204m lbs).This demonstrates that there is growing resistance to the higher pricing from Europe (down 18% over September to December). Estimates are that the final crop reports will be very close to last year’s, rather than the bumper crop that was predicted.
With fears that the total crop may have been less than the 223-230,000mts estimate, a major squeeze is definitely now on.
If Turkey consumes its usual 5O,OOOmts domestically, and with new crop unlikely to arrive in the EU And UK before the first half of September, we have 8 months of nervousness ahead
Mark Setterfield – January 2019