Market Overview (Edible Nuts, Dried Fruit and Seeds)
- Almonds – Since the largely positive “objective” estimate of 2.1b lbs, the sentiment on almonds has if anything, become increasingly negative. With ongoing concerns over the effects of the drought on this coming crop let alone on the next bloom, the big price drop might not be coming anytime soon. If anything California is more bullish than
- Walnuts – The latest news from India is not encouraging. They estimate this to be the third year running of a short walnut crop and this impending new crop is estimated to be about 70% of “normal” – at around 30-35,000mts inshell
- Sultanas – Domestic demand from Turkey will probably increase, and many buyers still remain uncovered for any of their 2015 requirements , so while the likes of China and Iran might well be at similar pricing, all being well Turkey’s new crop of around 330-350,000mts – plus a min 20,000mt carryover from the 2013 crop, will enable them to dominate supply and set up a strong carry over into the 2015 crop to follow on.
Mark Setterfield – September 2014
- Walnuts Pricing and availability both on walnuts, continue to tighten this side of any possible relief from the various walnut new crops.
- Hazels – Following reports of frost damage at the end of March prices have continued to firm. Recent reports have suggested that the damage may not be as bad as first suggested, but Turkish sellers are still reluctant to offer into new season until the situation can be better assessed from later in June.
- Apricots – The reports from Turkey since the major frost reports end March, have done nothing but fuel speculation that this is genuinely a major problem. If the new crop is as short as 30,000mts then the size of the carry over is key. Some speculate that this could be 40,000mts but a combined total of 70,000mts is still woefully short.
Mark Setterfield – June 2014
- Almonds -The latest, so-called “objective” estimate has been released from California and which puts the almond new crop at 2.1b lbs (952,000mts).
- Apricots – In short it’s a mess. Will there be stock to cover demand into 2015? Will demand drop faced with new higher pricing? The full extent of the impact of the frosts at end March will only be fully surveyed as the new crop is brought in and dried over the coming weeks, but reports still range anywhere from 6-8,000mts as a total new crop supply.
- Sultanas – Assuming the warm and dry weather prevails between now and harvest in August, Turkey might be about to produce a very good new crop and if so, a similar opportunity presents itself for Turkey to regain further lost export market share this year on sultanas.
Mark Setterfield – July 2014
- Almonds – Despite a near perfect bloom the recent concerns over the likely impact of the drought in California have been fuelled by the first official crop estimate which reports to be 2.5% lower than the current crop figure.
- Apricots – The frosts reported in Matatya at the end of March were far more serious than anyone appreciated, and with a potentially monumental reduction in supply it looks like this market will have a very difficult season ahead.
- Hazels– Severe frosts at the end of March have seen the potential new crop estimates of 750,000mt being downgraded to as low as 350,000mt. With this new figure in mind origin prices can justify trading at some 60% higher than prior to the frosts.
Mark Setterfield – May 2014
- Almonds– The current drought in California continues to threaten some of the orchards, early estimates point to a reduced crop this year.
- Apricots– Rumours of frost damage in the growing regions, but too early to assess wide spread implications.
- Sunflower– Prices have stabilised of late following recent events between the Ukraine and Russia caused prices to increase during March.
- Sultanas– The outlook in Turkey for 2014 crop is so far, so good, and providing we don’t see any major frosts, there is a growing possibility we could see figures around 300,000mts
Mark Setterfield – April 2014
- Almonds – The Almond bloom has now started and so far the warm and clear weather has provided optimal conditions for flowering and pollination.
- Hazels – With news of a strong developing crop could mean prices may look to drop towards the second half of 2014
- Brazils – The wettest month in Bolivia reported for 30 years brings internal transport links to a virtual standstill, and may results in potential delays of stock from origin and continued firm pricing
- Sultanas– The weather in Turkey is warmer than usual at this time of year which brings increased risk of frost at this critical development time for the vines.
Mark Setterfield – March 2014